Coronavirus

It's bad around here too, closing in on our previous peak. But hearing from my friend in ND... covid positive nurses are being told to go back to work. Hospitals just about full, MN hospitals filling up too.

It's so fucking tragic.

Governor Hogan just backed us up a step tonight hopefully to keep a lid on things.

My wife talked to a nurse tonight who said that whatever hospital she works at has no open beds and was turning people away from ER.

As a state, at current trend we'll be out of ICU beds in 7-10 days.

Probably no reason to do anything different though.

I was just told this morning that my local hospital (NW Ohio) is now at capacity. Our Governor is giving a press conference tonight... I smell lockdown.

Gary Sax wrote: It's bad around here too, closing in on our previous peak. But hearing from my friend in ND... covid positive nurses are being told to go back to work. Hospitals just about full, MN hospitals filling up too.

It's so fucking tragic.

Yup, as of Monday, 98% of ICU beds in the state of MN were full. Probably 100% by now. I was mistaken in the past when I said that there was no state-wide mask mandate in Minnesota. Apparently there has been one since late July, and it just isn't being taken seriously in rural areas. This week, our governor announced a 10:00 PM curfew for bars and restaurants, plus a 50% reduction in capacity for all bars and restaurants. The order does allow for restaurants to continue handling delivery and take-out orders after 10:00 PM.

US is over 1M cases in November already.

Wear a mask. Every time you go out. Store, gas, walk around the neighborhood. Wear a mask. Protects others, protects you. Mask up.

Keep some alcohol goop in the car. Goop up after coming out of the store. Goop after touching the gas pump. Goop at a red light, whatever. Goop.

Wash hands. For real. Pointy fingers into the crease of the palms. Top and bottoms of hands, to the wrist. Move your rings around. Lather on up.

Total of 10M cases in the U.S. so far, after only 8 months. If we have already had 1M new cases in November, than the spread is accelerating like crazy. It's going to be a tough winter. Good advice about the precautions we should all be taking.

Governor of Utah finally grew a pair and ordered a state-wide mask mandate, but of course all schools/businesses shall remain open. Gotta keep almighty Lord Mammon happy.

The panic buying of all essentials has set in again, as well. Costco was scary yesterday. I had scheduled a flu shot at their pharmacy and saw people pushing each other over fucking toilet paper. Takes me back to March...

Obviously, good news on the Pfizer vaccine is good news eventually. But I wouldn't get too excited, at least in the US, given our hospital situation:

www.statnews.com/2020/11/11/rural-hospit...zer-covid19-vaccine/

Similarly, my close friend since middle school works as a managment consultant for hospitals. He was on a call with a major well known hospital group in the US NE discussing vaccine distribution plans and his message to me was it is not looking good, it will be a long, long time even once we've decided to roll out the vaccine.

We have to try to hold on.

My wife reports that teachers in her building are increasingly worried that our district appears reluctant to switch learning models despite the really grim trajectory things are taking and the other local districts changing things.

Just in the last week the entire 4th grade (all 4 sections) at the other elementary school was sent into quarantine due to COVID spread at a Halloween night sleepover that one family hosted. What on earth are people thinking?

The Governor has belatedly issued a new order that "strongly discourages" the simultaneous instruction of both in-school kids and distance learners--precisely what my wife has been struggling with for 2 solid months, which is why she's up until 11 or midnight most nights, works all weekend, and has barely been able to spend any quality time with our kids or unwind. Apparently the district can take all the way until the end of the month to implement changes, by which time it'll probably be moot as we'll all be in full distance learning.

One of my local friends is a stats junkie, and has been sending out COVID-19 updates on Facebook at least three times a week since last spring. Here is an example:

Covid-19 Update: November 11, 2020
Shit is getting real, fellow survivors. On the bright side, the governor has finally stepped up to the plate, and is instituting restrictions across the state (more below). In the meantime, here’s the dirt.
Estimated Active Cases on October 26th at 71,434. Active Daily Growth 5-day is flying at .095. That sets the pace for Active Cases to double every 16 days. Cases in the Wild on October 26th at 50,489, with a Chance of Encounter of 1 in 111.
And now the real gut punch – extending these trends through today, we’d have 147,921 Active Cases, and 103,214 Cases in the Wild, with a Chance of Encounter of 1 in 54. HOLY FUCK. AAAAAAH!
Hennepin County would then have a Chance of Encounter of 1 in 62. In a group of 10, Chance of Encounter with at least 1 person Active in the Wild is 15%. Group of 25 is 33.4%. Group of 50 is 55.6%. Group of 100 is 80.3%.
On top of all of this, we reported 56 deaths today. Our previous record was 36. I wasn’t expecting that jump up quite so soon. It could be a sign that the hospitals are already breaking, and I’ll keep a close eye on it.
As per new statewide restrictions, there is a 10 person limit on all private social gatherings, allowing up to 3 households. Events like funerals and weddings are limited to 50 people. Bars and restaurants are limited to 50% capacity, max 150 people. Dine-in services to end at 10:00 pm. I don’t think this will last – I expect a hard shutdown when the hospitals break.
www.cbsnews.com/.../covid-restrictions-minnesota.../
The chart is the usual, tilting for the horrible and the vertical. We have likely passed 4 times the peak of the first wave.
The worst Counties in MN are Mille Lacs, Roseau, Benton, Polk, and Douglas. Chance of Encounter in Mille Lacs is 1 in 26. Which is FUCKING IMPRESSIVE.
National picture 246,173 deaths, averaging 1,041/day, and you ain’t seen nothing, yet.
State comparison shows Minnesota averaging 29 deaths/day (worse, and doesn’t include today’s record high), or 5.1 deaths per million persons per day.
North Dakota at 17/day (worse), 22.3 deaths/per million/day
South Dakota at 14/day (steady), 15.8 deaths/per million/day
Wyoming at 5/day (worse), 8.6 deaths/per million/day
Montana at 9/day (better), 8.4 deaths/per million/day
Wisconsin at 42/day (worse), 7.2 deaths/per million/day
Indiana at 42/day (worse), 6.2 deaths/per million/day
Missouri at 37/day (worse), 6 deaths/per million/day
Idaho at 10/day (worse), 5.5 deaths/per million/day
Iowa at 16/day (better), 5 deaths/per million/day
Arkansas at 15/day (better), 4.9 deaths/per million/day
On a personal note, I’ve gone into lockdown mode. No people outside of my pod, no holiday gatherings or birthdays, all groceries and supplies for delivery only. If you have the means, I highly suggest you do the same.
Good luck.

Watched some of the Governor's address here in Ohio. He didn't issue a lockdown order. Instead he reiterated the existing mask order, but this time they are forming an inspection team to see that it is being followed.

I will be interested to see how this progresses, since it kind of sounds like "pretty please wear a mask" when it really should be "WEAR A FUCKING MASK."

Masks seem to provide a false sense of security -- really the key is "masks when you can't socially distance", but people treat it as "if you're wearing a mask you don't need to socially distance". I about lose it when I'm in the store and people encroach on my space just because they are wearing a mask -- enraging.