Postmortem- The Gothic Game Fails to Fund, But Is Still Awesome

Isn't the chance of rolling thre sixes extremely low? I've checked and it's 1 to 216. I know the game is meant to be fun and random but that's less than a 0,5% of the ability ever coming into play. That's worse than being eliminated.

I suspect it's meant as an option you can pick if you really don't want to do the other choices, since the game will end soon anyway.

If someone actually did it, no one would ever forget it!

I suppose some sort of dice manipulation could happen to increase the odds. Something like +1 reroll for each round after death that the game continues. I have never played this game so I am just throwing out nonsense.

hotseatgames wrote: I suspect it's meant as an option you can pick if you really don't want to do the other choices, since the game will end soon anyway.

If someone actually did it, no one would ever forget it!

I suppose some sort of dice manipulation could happen to increase the odds. Something like +1 reroll for each round after death that the game continues. I have never played this game so I am just throwing out nonsense.

Exactly this. And then imagine you come back to actually win! Stuff of legends right there.

I am very conscious about making it extremely unlikely. Possibly it's too unlikely right now and I will consider that. Someone else suggested you get three rolls and you can 'stick' any sixes you roll. But it's speed as much as anything. You roll your three dice and bang, next player.

There's also the issue of there being a balance between people opting to use the other powers. If it was more likely then possibly every eliminated player would just do this over and over. Playtesting so far has seen a pretty broad use of the Haunt abilities, which is obviously exactly what I'm going for.

A single roll of 3 6-sided dice yields only a 1 in 216 chance of getting three 6s. But if someone commits to that roll for 10 turns in a row, they have nearly a 1 in 20 chance of getting 3 6s on one of those rolls.

I will be funding the new Kickstarter to the best of my ability. Can't wait.

Love the development you've done since the last campaign. All those points you made about the original game and have addressed are bang on.
I have the original but I will be backing this. Great stuff!

Two years ago was tough for me personally, but a happy ending to this post.

The Gothic Game Funds

A huge thank you to everyone from here who's backed the game.

Shellhead wrote: A single roll of 3 6-sided dice yields only a 1 in 216 chance of getting three 6s. But if someone commits to that roll for 10 turns in a row, they have nearly a 1 in 20 chance of getting 3 6s on one of those rolls.

Now I'm no math scientist, but wouldn't this be the same type of situation as your odds of winning the lottery? No matter how many times you play, your odds don't change?

Disgustipater wrote:

Shellhead wrote: A single roll of 3 6-sided dice yields only a 1 in 216 chance of getting three 6s. But if someone commits to that roll for 10 turns in a row, they have nearly a 1 in 20 chance of getting 3 6s on one of those rolls.

Now I'm no math scientist, but wouldn't this be the same type of situation as your odds of winning the lottery? No matter how many times you play, your odds don't change?

I'm not an expert on probabilities either, but I think we can both agree that the chances of flipping a coin and getting heads once is much better than the chances of flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads each time.

The odds of rolling three 6s with three six-sided dice is 1 in 218 (1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6), or roughly 0.46%. So the chance of not rolling three 6s is roughly 99.54%. The chance of not rolling three 6s in 10 attempts would be 99.54%^10 (.9954 * .9954 * .9954 etc), or 95.49%. So someone rolling three dice 10 times in a row has about a 4.51% chance of getting three 6s on at least one of those 10 rolls. Assuming I got this math right.

Shellhead wrote: but I think we can both agree that the chances of flipping a coin and getting heads once is much better than the chances of flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads each time.

I would disagree; the chances are the same. As previous flips have no bearing on subsequent flips, you would start from the baseline (50/50) each time. The same should be true for dice rolls.

Though maybe we are confusing our terms? Is probability different from chance?

Disgustipater wrote:

Shellhead wrote: but I think we can both agree that the chances of flipping a coin and getting heads once is much better than the chances of flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads each time.

I would disagree; the chances are the same. As previous flips have no bearing on subsequent flips, you would start from the baseline (50/50) each time. The same should be true for dice rolls.

Though maybe we are confusing our terms? Is probability different from chance?

Each individual roll is independent, yes. But the question is not about an individual roll, it's about a series of rolls. To go back to the coin flipping example, which has higher odds?

1. Flipping a coin once and getting heads.
2. Flipping a coin ten times, and getting at least one head.

#2 is significantly higher, because you only need 1/10th of your flips to come up heads in order to "win." #1 needs all of your flips to come up heads.

Shellhead wrote:

Disgustipater wrote:

Shellhead wrote: A single roll of 3 6-sided dice yields only a 1 in 216 chance of getting three 6s. But if someone commits to that roll for 10 turns in a row, they have nearly a 1 in 20 chance of getting 3 6s on one of those rolls.

Now I'm no math scientist, but wouldn't this be the same type of situation as your odds of winning the lottery? No matter how many times you play, your odds don't change?

I'm not an expert on probabilities either, but I think we can both agree that the chances of flipping a coin and getting heads once is much better than the chances of flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads each time.

The odds of rolling three 6s with three six-sided dice is 1 in 218 (1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6), or roughly 0.46%. So the chance of not rolling three 6s is roughly 99.54%. The chance of not rolling three 6s in 10 attempts would be 99.54%^10 (.9954 * .9954 * .9954 etc), or 95.49%. So someone rolling three dice 10 times in a row has about a 4.51% chance of getting three 6s on at least one of those 10 rolls. Assuming I got this math right.

This is correct. I think that probability is just right to make it rare but awesome when it happens

Folks what are you doing. This is no way to talk about this game.

I’ve seen the stairway escape happen one time in 25+ years of playing this game. It was by far one of the greatest moments ever in my gaming life. My friend was like “fuck this game, blah blah blah” and then he hit it and six people hit the fucking roof.

Not to brag, but I rolled a one-in-four-million to save the whole party in AD&D forty years ago. I still remember it fondly.

What about that time in Splendor when picked up two white gems and bought the 7 VP card